How Scorely works out the probability of each result
Scorely does not guess results: it turns published odds into probabilities, strips out the bookmaker margin and shows the figure next to the community vote. This page explains the formula with an example and where every number comes from.
Last updated:
The formula
The implied probability of decimal odds is 1 / odds. Odds of 2.00 mean 50%.
Bookmakers build in a margin, so the probabilities of home, draw and away add up to more than 100%. The excess is the bookmaker margin.
To remove it we divide each probability by the sum of all of them (proportional normalisation). The result adds up to exactly 100%: that is the no-margin probability we show.
Worked example
Example odds for one game: home 2.10 · draw 3.40 · away 3.60.
| Result | Odds | 1 / odds | No margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 0.4762 | 45.4% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 0.2941 | 28.1% |
| Away | 3.60 | 0.2778 | 26.5% |
| Σ | 1.0481 | 100% |
1 / odds adds up to 1.0481, so the bookmaker margin is 4.8%. Dividing each value by 1.0481 leaves the home side as market favourite, but with less than half of the chances.
With a real game from this edition
Brisbane Roar FC vs Auckland FC (A-League Men, Friday 30 October 2026, 20:00 AEST). 1X2 odds published when this page was generated:
| Result | Odds | 1 / odds | No margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar FC | 2.80 | 0.3571 | 33.2% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 0.3030 | 28.1% |
| Auckland FC | 2.40 | 0.4167 | 38.7% |
| Σ | 1.0768 | 100% |
Odds move until kick-off; the match page always shows the latest version. Brisbane Roar FC vs Auckland FC
What it means and what it does not
- The no-margin probability sums up what the market is pricing in at that moment. It is not our own forecast and it is not betting advice.
- The "market favourite" is the outcome with the highest probability. Being favourite does not mean it will happen: at 45%, it loses or draws more than half of the time.
- If a game has no published odds, we calculate nothing and never fill the gap with estimates.
Community
The community 1X2 vote comes from registered users choosing an outcome on the match page. It is shown as it is, with no weighting.
How often the data is updated
- Scores of games in progress: every 30 seconds.
- Fixtures for the current month: every 10 minutes; next month, every hour.
- Standings: every hour.
- Match page (line-ups, events and stats): every 30 seconds in play, every 10 minutes before kick-off and every 12 hours after full time.
- Official videos: the busiest channels are read every 20 minutes; the rest, every hour.
Calculators
Our tools (odds converter, implied probability, accumulator/parlay and arbitrage calculators) use the same formulas and run in your browser.
Data sources
- ESPN: scores, fixtures, standings, line-ups, match events (goals and cards), team and player stats, and the odds ESPN publishes for each game.
- Sportmonks: odds from several bookmakers for the Scottish Premiership and the Danish Superliga.
- TheSportsDB: stadium data and photos.
- Official YouTube channels of leagues, clubs and federations: videos play in the official player inside Scorely.
- The Scorely community: 1X2 votes from registered users, settled against the official result.
Responsible gambling
In Australia, online wagering is regulated under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001, enforced by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA). Only licensed Australian operators may offer wagering, and online in-play betting is restricted.
18+ only. Nothing we publish is a "sure win". Help: Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858.