Southampton v Derby County
EFL Championship
Who wins?
Southampton
68%
Draw
19%
Derby
13%
Scorely predictions
Expected goals
Over 3.5: 40% · pays 13/10 · Under 3.5: 60% · pays 5/9
Both teams to score: 54% · pays 5/7
No-margin probability and reference market payout, via ESPN. Not betting advice. 18+
Scorely prediction
Scorely model + marketWinner
Southampton 61 % · pays 7/18
Both teams to score
Yes 54 % · pays 5/7
Goals
Under 3.5 63 % · pays 5/9
Value: we rate it above the odds
Confidence
High
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Winner hit rate across all leagues, last 30 days: 62% (145 games).
18+ · Play responsibly.
Southampton host Derby County on Saturday, 21 November 2026 at 12:30 (UK time) at St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship.
Southampton sit 7th on 24 points.
Derby County sit 23rd on 10 points.
Southampton have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches.
Derby County have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches.
Last 5 meetings: Southampton won 1, Derby County won 2, 2 drawn.
- Competition
- EFL Championship
- Kick-off
- Saturday, 21 November 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
- Venue
- St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Preview in numbers
- Kick-off in the United Kingdom is 12:30 (UK time) on Saturday 21 November 2026.
- Southampton have not lost in their last 4.
- Derby County are without a win in 4.
- Southampton sit 7th on 24 points and Derby County 23rd on 10: 14 points apart.
- Their last meeting, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Southampton 2-1 Derby County.
- Southampton are the market favourites at 68%, with the bookmaker margin taken out.
Data: ESPN · votes and picks from Scorely users
Odds movement
Opening → NowSouthampton
2/5 → 7/18
−0.6%
Draw
19/5 → 4/1
+4.2%
Derby
6/1 → 6/1
=
Over 3.5: 13/10 → 13/10 = · Under 3.5: 5/9 → 5/9 =
ESPN opening and current prices published by ESPN. 18+
Odds comparison
Match result (1X2)
| Bookmaker | 1 · Southampton | X · Draw | 2 · Derby | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1/3 | 15/4 | 6/1 | 10.5% |
Indicative odds that move until kick-off. The best price in each column is highlighted. Margin = the bookmaker's cut (sum of implied probabilities − 100%). 18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Licensed bookmakers in this edition: Bet365 (Gambling Commission · 055148-R-331498-002)
Market probability
Double chance
1X · Southampton or draw
85%
12 · Southampton or Derby County
81%
X2 · Draw or Derby County
34%
First team to score
Southampton
66%
No goal
6%
Derby County
28%
Total goals
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Exact total goals
| 0 | 4% |
| 1 | 13% |
| 2 | 20% |
| 3 | 22% |
| 4 | 18% |
| 5 | 12% |
| 6+ | 11% |
Team total goals · Derby County
Over 1.5
25%
Under 1.5
75%
Team total goals · Derby County
Over 2.5
10%
Under 2.5
90%
Team total goals · Derby County
Over 0.5
59%
Under 0.5
41%
Team total goals · Southampton
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Team total goals · Southampton
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Team total goals · Southampton
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Team total goals · Southampton
Over 4.5
12%
Under 4.5
88%
Team total goals · Southampton
Over 0.5
87%
Under 0.5
13%
Exact team goals · Southampton
| 0 | 10% |
| 1 | 23% |
| 2 | 27% |
| 3 | 21% |
| 4+ | 20% |
Exact team goals · Derby County
| 0 | 39% |
| 1 | 36% |
| 2 | 17% |
| 3 | 6% |
| 4+ | 2% |
Both teams to score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Both teams to score: 1st half
Yes
24%
No
76%
Both teams to score: 2nd half
Yes
31%
No
70%
Clean sheet · Derby County
Yes
13%
No
87%
Clean sheet · Southampton
Yes
41%
No
59%
Correct score
| 2-0 | 10% |
| 2-1 | 10% |
| 1-0 | 9% |
| 1-1 | 8% |
| 3-0 | 8% |
| 3-1 | 7% |
| 2-2 | 5% |
| 0-1 | 4% |
| 1-2 | 4% |
| 3-2 | 4% |
| 0-0 | 4% |
| 0-2 | 2% |
| 2-3 | 2% |
| 1-3 | 1% |
| 3-3 | 1% |
| 0-3 | 1% |
1st half result
Southampton
51%
Draw
34%
Derby County
15%
2nd half result
Southampton
53%
Draw
31%
Derby County
16%
1st half goals
Over 1.5
42%
Under 1.5
58%
1st half goals
Over 2.5
20%
Under 2.5
80%
1st half goals
Over 3.5
9%
Under 3.5
91%
1st half goals
Over 0.5
74%
Under 0.5
26%
To score in the 1st half · Derby County
Yes
34%
No
66%
To score in the 1st half · Southampton
Yes
64%
No
36%
To score in the 2nd half · Derby County
Yes
40%
No
60%
To score in the 2nd half · Southampton
Yes
70%
No
30%
Probability estimated from the market, margin removed. Not odds and not an invitation to bet. Market data via ESPN. 18+
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Southampton
Derby County
Head-to-head record
1
Southampton
2
Draws
2
Derby
Last meetings
| # | Team | P | F/A | GD | Pts | W | D | L | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | 28:14 | +14 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 2 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Boro | 15 | 30:19 | +11 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 2 | DWWLD |
| 3 |  Stoke | 15 | 24:18 | +6 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 4 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | 26:18 | +8 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 3 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | 23:15 | +8 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 3 | WDWDW |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | 22:18 | +4 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 5 | LLWLL |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | 29:15 | +14 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 3 | DWWDL |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | 24:18 | +6 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 3 | LWLDW |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | 37:23 | +14 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 4 | WLLDL |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | 21:19 | +2 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 5 | WDWWL |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | 20:18 | +2 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 5 | DWDWL |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 15 | 32:24 | +8 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 8 | LWWWW |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | 22:23 | -1 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 6 | LWLLW |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 27:27 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 5 | DWLDW |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | 18:20 | -2 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 5 | WLLWD |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | 23:27 | -4 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 7 | DLWLL |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | 16:24 | -8 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | 20:29 | -9 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 8 | DLLWL |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | 13:23 | -10 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 6 | LLLLW |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | 13:23 | -10 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | WLLWD |
| 21 |  Lincoln City | 15 | 15:26 | -11 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | 22:31 | -9 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 7 | LLDDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 14:30 | -16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 9 | LDLLW |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | 13:30 | -17 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | LDLLW |
QualificationRelegationP: PlayedW: WonD: DrawnL: LostF: Goals forA: Goals againstGD: Goal differencePts: Points
Statistical prediction
API-Football
Advice: Winner : Southampton
Community vote
Who wins? Vote and earn points.
0 votes
Sat 21 Nov
Bolton
Portsmouth7/440/173/2
Lincoln City
Wrexham9/59/416/11
Boro
Bristol City3/84/16/1FAQ
What time does Southampton v Derby County start?
Southampton v Derby County (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 November at 12:30 (UK time) at St. Mary's Stadium.
Where are Southampton and Derby County in the table?
Southampton are 7th on 24 points and Derby County 23rd on 10.
Who is the favourite in Southampton v Derby County?
The market favourite is Southampton. Probability without the bookmaker margin: Southampton 68 %, the draw 19 % and Derby County 13 %. It is indicative and moves until the start.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Derby County?
In their last 5 meetings: Southampton won 1, Derby County won 2 and 2 ended level.
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